The Human Behavior Podcast
Do you ever wonder why people act the way that they do? Join human behavior experts Brian Marren and Greg Williams as they discuss all things human behavior related. Their goal is to increase your Advanced Critical Thinking ability through a better understanding of HBPR&A (Human Behavior Pattern Recognition & Analysis.) What is HBPR&A? It's a scientific (and fun) way to understand and articulate human behavior cues so that you can predict likely outcomes and it works regardless of your race, religion, political ideology or culture!
The Human Behavior Podcast
Detecting A Cunning Opponent
Your gut has tried to warn you before. That flicker when someone lingers by a bathroom door, shadows you to the elevator, or blocks your path with a smile and a prop—it’s not paranoia, it’s a baseline breaking. We dig into a practical method for spotting a cunning opponent early, whether it’s a low-level hustler at the pump or a higher-stakes actor at a major event. The mechanics of deception don’t change; only the stakes do.
We start by stripping away the jargon and defining terms that keep you clear-headed. Opponent isn’t “enemy”; it’s anyone competing for advantage in a shared environment. From there, we map the four recurring tools that reveal intent: access, blending, manipulation, and timing. You’ll learn how bad actors create closeness, hide in plain sight with props and roles, steer your attention, and pick their moment. Then we teach BASE—Baseline, Anomaly, Simplest explanation, Experiment—a concise loop you can run in real time to test what you think you’re seeing without overreacting.
You’ll hear concrete examples from gas stations, hotels, tourist piers, and event lines, plus how to communicate what matters with short, useful language that prompts action. We walk through MLCOA versus MDCOA to balance likely and dangerous interpretations, then show low-calorie experiments—changing angle, reversing course, quick contact, second set of eyes—that force a reaction and buy time and distance. If you can catch a shoplifter’s access play, you can disrupt a more serious plan using the same cues. This is situational awareness you can practice today: clean, repeatable, and calm under pressure.
If this helped sharpen your instincts, follow the show, share it with a friend, and leave a quick review. For deeper dives and drills, check out our Patreon and keep the reps going—training changes behavior.
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Hello everyone and welcome to the Human Behavior Podcast. Today we're digging into a skill that applies everywhere called detecting a cunning opponent. Not the obvious guy doing something loud, but the person is trying to hide in plain sight, blending in, manipulating attention, buying time, and creating access. We break down a simple repeatable framework you can use immediately to identify a cunning opponent, plus how to test what you're seeing in real time without jumping to conclusions or waiting until it's too late. We'll show you why the same process that helps you spot a petty criminal can also help you catch something far more serious, because the mechanics of deception don't change. Only the stakes do. If you ever had that gut feeling something just didn't fit, but you couldn't explain why, this episode will give you the language, the model, and the practical drills to sharpen that instinct. Thank you so much for tuning in. We hope you enjoyed the episode, and don't forget to check out our Patreon channel for additional content and subscriber-only episodes. If you enjoyed the podcast, please consider leaving us a review and more importantly, sharing it with a friend. Thank you for your time, and remember, training changes behavior. All right, and we're started. Greg, happy new year to you and happy new year to all of our listeners of the Human Behavior Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. This is the first podcast of the new year. Had a great last year and hit some big milestones with the podcast. So thank you guys all for listening and sharing it with a friend. We we appreciate that. That helps us out a lot. So today we wanted to start off, Greg, this this episode with a concept that we we teach in a sense, that we have some courses name this called Detecting a Cunning Opponent. And there's a lot to get into with it, but the kind of big overarching thing is, you know, part of it is when you want to know what you're up against. It's detecting something versus responding to something, obviously. And you know, we call it a cunning opponent, you know, for a specific reason. And we'll we'll define some of these terms here in a minute. But the big idea is, you know, we want to create sort of a model, simple way. Whether you're using this at some large sporting event or you know, concert type thing, doesn't matter if it's individually traveling with your family, you're in security, you're in safety, whatever it is. It's anything being around people. And, you know, the the the obvious ones are easy to spot, like you know, the the guy walking down the street with a gun, you know, or something's already happening. Or yeah, I mean, the the difficulty is when someone is attempting to hide in plain sight when they're a cunning opponent versus just the guy who you can tell is waiting outside the 7-Eleven to rob people when you you know when you pull up and you're like, oh, that's that doesn't belong here. It's like not exactly the most cunning individual, right? So it it get because there's a little bit of complexity in it. But the idea is detecting cunning opponents is something we talk about and understanding the gift of time and distance, and how do we use our algorithms of B plus A equals D, the baseline plus anomaly equals decision. We'll get into some of that in in detail, but you know, we're kind of generally focusing around because when we teach this course, a lot of time it is to like event-driven sort of security procedures and safety procedures. So think of that, you know, big football game, the uh the Olympics, you know, something big like that. Because there's a lot of people at these events, a lot of people tend to think that, you know, crowds are in environments like that are kind of chaotic and unpredictable. And they're really not at all, especially when a fixed location, such as like a stadium or something like that. It's actually one, there's there's some design parameters in there that that they aren't unpredictable. You can only go and do so many different things in there. So most of them are actually already sort of highly structured and and semi-predictable behaviors, meaning you can predict what's typical, right? And then predict what are the likely things that you may encounter from a cunning opponent or something dangerous, but also things you may encounter just operationally. Hey, we didn't the the back delivery area is flooded, and now we have to reroute the trucks to some other area, which is going to affect other things, right? So there's certain things you can kind of plan for. And, you know, what we want to do with this episode especially is like kind of give some examples of how we use our model to go from that big, chaotic, seemingly chaotic environment of a lot of people, a big crowd, down to okay, maybe a group of people, down to really it's the one or two or three, the small group of actors inside the scene that are actually there to do something other than what everyone else is there for. And typically that's some sort of crime, or it, you know, it in in worst case scenario, some type of attack or terrorist attack or something like that. Right? So it's how do I go from this big, seemingly chaotic, unpredictable environment down to focus my attention where it actually needs to be? So we can do that with with a repeatable model and stuff that we can use. We'll get into. But first, Greg, I'd like to start by sort of defining some of the terms. And so, for example, when we say opponent, opponent does not necessarily mean an enemy, right? It's just the the other person. So that could be the person, the opposing team in the game. Uh, it could be someone like a con artist, it could be your kid testing their boundaries, the bad actor in the crowd, a competitor, whatever this. But but opponent has a specific connotation versus like the enemy or the threat. Because once I do that, it starts to kind of limit what I think and how I see it. So, Greg, could you maybe start off like kind of with just opponent and what we mean by that, and like a like a like a street definition?
SPEAKER_03:Yeah, so you said some great things there. And and folks, get used to having a pen in your hand, recording the episode, jotting down notes. Yeah, because you're not going to be able to use that stuff if you don't have it right at your fingertips, right? And it's gonna take you time to rehearse because we're talking complex environments. We're talking, and and I would only add a caveat to everything that Brian said so far. I would say on my continuum, we have zero to one person on the far left. In the middle, we have a small group, and on the right, we have a large group. So that's the only difference because even Brian said, you know, one or two or three people. Well, listen, you can encounter a cunning opponent when you're sending your daughter or son to a birthday party and the dad has a GoPro hidden in the bedroom. Okay. That's one person. Do you get what I'm saying? With a remote device. And that's you get what I'm trying to say. So, so let's not imagine that it's the the Super Bowl every time. As a matter of fact, the Super Bowl is the perfect environment to test your skills, right? To build them so they'll work in small group and and zero to one. So, so opponent. We equate it with enemy because we do the wrong thing. So we say tactical and cunning, and we use those all the time. And a cunning opponent. So a cunning opponent is a thinking opponent that's aware of their environment, that's going to utilize certain facets of their environment to gain an advantage. Simply. Now that could be a criminal advantage. That could be opponent in a chess match. That could be a person that's trying to sell their flowers in City Market rather than the flower store next door and get you interested in buying them. So the idea is that we have to understand the level of cunning that's at play and whether there's an intent-based cunning. So an intent would mean that the person is trying to get you to buy the object for sale, or the intent is they're trying to get you a loan so they can predate you. That's um that's hugely important. So opponent just means that every environment you enter into is competitive, no matter what the stakes, even if the stakes are small. And therefore, I have to make sure what type of opponent I'm seeing. I'm seeing an opponent that's just another person. We're racing shopping carts to get to the last goddamn can of peace. You get what I'm trying to say? Or it's a shoplifter and I'm between him and the exit. You see what I'm trying to say? So those are much more important than the word opponent. And then tactical, we've attached tactical to military and police. Tactical means ground level in street terms. It means, you know, boots on the ground at a place, at a time, and the surrounding that you find yourself in, therefore, the baseline. Operational baselines are quite different. Okay, it's a different level. And strategic baselines are yet another complex level, right? So let's stick with those things that are immediately available to me in an environment. I give you a quick example. Surprise doesn't make a person cunning, okay? Surprise just an element of the environment. Now, if that person uses the element of surprise as a form of distraction, now you have a tactical and a cunning. You see what I'm trying to say? So that level of uh complexity grows based on that. So a target of opportunity criminal, okay? That doesn't necessarily mean cunning. That person looks around and says, this computer's left on the front seat and the window's down, and I'm gonna avail myself of that computer. There's a level of tactic. They've equated cost-benefit analysis with the environment and made the decision to go to the dark side. So so you have to consider all of that stuff before you ever leave your house. And those are the easy things. Those are the things you can do with your kids at the kitchen table, Brian. You don't have to flip tires and climb the rope and you know go to the gym to get good at these.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and that that's a great way to look at it, like, you know, the the cunning opponent. Is this the person that was, you know, walking past my vehicle and happened to see the laptop, busted out the window, and took it to go steal it? Or or did they make it look that way because there's something extremely valuable on my laptop that's being exploited by someone and it was an espionage? Yeah, it's I love it.
SPEAKER_03:I see exactly where you're going. And and let's let's put a comparable there. It's winter here in Gunnison. I know it's winter where you're at, not so much when you lived in California, my brother. No. Uh uh, but let's put it this way for the new year. So there's a lot of what Colorado, I hate the term, calls huffers and puffers, and it has nothing to do with dope. It's leaving your car running when you're running into a store. So everybody here, there's a few stores that are open that early. So you got Walmart, you got City Market. Well, a cunning opponent is the one that's going to predate on that parking lot to take your car for a purpose. They're gonna load it with dope and take it to another city. They're gonna load it with humans and do trafficking, they're gonna commit another crime by ramming it through a wall to get to your safe. The guy that just wants to get to Crested Butte to go skiing, okay, he's gonna look and go, ooh, warm car. Ooh, piece of candy. Okay, no cunning whatsoever. Do you get what I'm trying to say? So, so the idea is that you have to think in terms of what's the measurement? What's the what's the how do I equate what this and and that helps you look? You know what your stakes are, even though they're they're small when you get into a chess match, right? When when you're playing a trivial pursuit game with a table full of people over Thanksgiving. That's low-level stuff, Brian. But when you see that this person is trying to gain an advantage, you have to start thinking fast. What advantage do we they want to gain on me? And could it be criminal? Could it be nefarious?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and that that that's a good point because you know, uh a cunning opponent, right? Well, if if you're trying to be cunning, you're you're trying to gain some sort of advantage and stay undetected, or or at least your plan remain undetected. You know, it doesn't mean that you're trying to be undetected, maybe you actually are, but you have some ulterior motive, right? And so you if you think about it, you know, detect a cunning opponent, a lot of people who even listen to the show, I mean, they they spend a lot of time themselves trying to be a cunning opponent, maybe so that they're not a victim or so that they're not surprised, right? So so if you think about it from this is like an internal perspective, an external perspective as well. It's like, all right, the things that you do to become do to try to be a cunning opponent so that someone at a minimum goes, you know what, not this guy. I'm gonna I'm gonna move on to the next person and victimize them, right? So so some of this is stuff that you may do already implicitly and that you've thought or thought about it explicitly and and decided to do that, but it it takes on a different perspective from from sort of the the opponent's perspective. And that's something we we we we could probably should do a whole podcast episode on that, where like you know how we used to talk about like thinking like an insurgent or thinking like that, because a lot of people really do get that wrong where it's well intentioned, but it's kind of like no, that's not how that works when you're a criminal, or that's not how so but but I but but when it comes to cutting, like you you already have what I'm saying is like you listening to this already have likely some skill set in this in in applying this, yet we want to take that and build on it so you can identify someone else doing it.
SPEAKER_03:Exactly. And and so so here's the point again, stop thinking that it's dangerous in every application. So it's misunderstood often as malicious. So listen to what Brian said. Brian said that that cunning is the ability to gain advantage while staying undetected. So let's talk about undetected. Either you have to remain undetected, you as the human in the crowd of people or in the group of people. Yeah. Distinction there, size, or the player has to remain, the pawn, the rook, the chess piece, okay, has to remain undetected. So as it lingers, you forget about it. Now that's gonna come to play a little bit later. So an IED was an example of uh an undetected enemy, right? I'm gonna put it on this travel route, expecting most likely course of action, that uh young Marine is gonna walk down there a young soldier. You get what I'm trying to say? So now we're demonstrating a nefarious intent, but not so in a game. But both player and piece has to remain undetected. So anytime somebody is trying to take steps, actively take steps, not lip service, take steps to remain undetected, you should be interested. And you should say, okay, what's the likely outcome of this act?
SPEAKER_02:So so let's let's jump into that then, like sort of like the mechanics of this, how it works, how does how how does someone hide in plain sight, right? How do they become a cunning opponent? And so there's there's a bunch of different elements that you can use, but there's some big ones that really that we get into a lot, but that the the kind of common tools, I would say, or common things that are done, or common things that you'll see across. So there's things like access, which we'll talk about, blending, like you already started about like how do you in plain sight, some sort of maybe manipulation, whether that's uh manipulating your attention, some sort of social engineering, creating distraction, and then timing, right? There there has to be certain, there's an element like of of timing in all of this. Like you said, if we're talking about specific like you bring up the Super Bowl, well, there's you get one chance a year at that, right? But but meaning even within a moment, like there's a lot of that that timing that comes to play. Like you brought up surprise, like, okay, was it because the element of surprise just occurred and emerged from the situation? Or was it a planned moment of surprise? So each of these things have have sort of their own way of doing thing. And and and you brought it up too, even with with IEDs in a sense. That first one being like like access. And we we we say this very like it's a simple statement, but but you really got to think about it, right? You you always say to us, look, I gotta bring you to the bomb or I gotta bring the bomb to you. It's all about access. So meaning I either have to gain access in some way, or I have to create access in some way if I don't have it. Meaning, like there's there's there has to be a way to get that. And yeah, that sounds oversimplified, but it's but it's really not.
SPEAKER_03:So could you kind of so let's go, let's go way down to the road again. Let's put boots on the ground and let's talk about Brian's experiences for everybody that's listening. Brian's a combat veteran, a decorated scout sniper with combat experience. So he gained access to a cunning enemy with a bullet. He had a scope which allowed him to see an enemy at a great distance. Then he profiled their human behavior, discerned them as an enemy from the civilian population, and used a bullet to close the gap and neutralize the threat. Now, that's that seems like fancy talk, but think about it for just a minute. Okay, Brian brought the crime scene to the victim. So the idea is Brian had to use access to get close enough to that person to destroy them in that sense. So that's the same thing if you were playing checkers. Checkers, you have to have your piece close enough on the board to, you know, competitively jump targets, and you have to do it undetected because if you're detected, the person will do counters and then it becomes like a protracted game of tic-tac-toe where nobody goes anywhere. You get what I'm trying to say?
SPEAKER_02:And on that one, thank you for using checkers because I'm not a chess player.
SPEAKER_03:Exactly. Nor am I, nor am I, but I see the pieces all the time, right? When we were in Mexico City, remember using the chest piece as an example, and a guy had no idea what he was talking about. But but the idea is let's talk about that for a minute. So the person that Brian brings up at a gas station that has the brand new gas can that comes over. Hey, brother, can you spare a dollar? I'm gonna get some gas. Okay, let's talk about that person, a low-level street urchin, probably zero danger. Okay. But how do they get to you? They can't yell at a distance, you over there, come to me. Okay, that's not gonna work at all, right? And so, how do advertisers do it? Well, we know red and yellow, you know, at a food store. That gets us thinking about, ooh, you know, a piece of candy. So the idea is that I have to get something that's interesting enough to you that you'll close the distance and come to me, or I have to come to you. So the idea is what steps do I do, and those steps will stand out against somebody that's just normally, clinically normally, going about their day. Normal people gain access by going up to a door and opening a door. They gain access to their car by opening their car door. They don't surreptitiously watch the door and then try it the first time to see if it's unlocked, then lie and wait for somebody to come in, swipe their card, and then try to sneak in the door afterwards. So those behaviors are above or below a baseline for access.
SPEAKER_02:And and you brought up a perfect example that is something as benign as the you know person coming up and asking for for money at the gas station. But one, they they have access because you're stuck there at the pump and you're sitting there with your you know what I mean? So so they have they they you you you can't go to, but like you said, you can't they're not gonna call you over, they're gonna go right up to you because they know you're right there anchored at your vehicle. Then they're gonna hide in plain sight, like I'm gonna come up with the gas can, the empty gas can and point at it and do this. So I'm gonna use these different props or tools, I'm gonna use some urban masking, social camouflage. I might manipulate or social engineer the situation. Oh, yeah, point to another car with some kids, and those are my kids over there, they're starving, blah, blah, blah. You know, and that timing matters is well, they they have to wait for someone for that time when someone's stuck at their pump and they already start covering gas because they can't blow them off because you're not going anywhere, right? So that's just like a perfect example of that that sort of low-level way of of you know, that's a little bit of cunning in there, but it's nothing but but it's it's almost like the easy button. Like it doesn't take a lot of thought for them to pull something like that off.
SPEAKER_03:So that's why that person does it. Do you get what I'm trying to say? So it's like being assistant crackhor. You you look at the the complexity of the the situation that you find yourself in. Terrible job. Exactly. But that's that's the you know, back from the day when we were doing psychological breakdowns of people, everybody falls into a stratus uh uh uh a level a layer of their complexity in their environment, right? So some people are bottom feeders, some people feed off the bottom feeders, some people are very aggressive criminals, right? So so let's talk. And Brian's four common tools of of cunning were access and blending and manipulation and timing. So yesterday night, sadly, up in Larimer County, a mountain lion killed a female hiker. Okay. Uh so you know, it's the time. Why is it the time? Because they're pushed into areas that are commonly used by, you know, humans and residential areas and recreation areas. It's cold as uh Well diggers ass, the snow is deeper, it's harder to catch the the animals. So the animal had access. First of all, it's a park, okay, outside of Laramore County. Second, it blends in with its environment perfectly and silently. It steered the attention away by using distraction. Well, how did it do that? It laid silently in wait along a likely trail and didn't move. And it controlled its breathing and waited for the perfect possible time, timing, then exploited you walking under that tree or past those bushes, and you're distracted. You're looking at the beautiful environment and hey, we haven't had snow in a couple of days. So the idea we give examples like snipers, insider threats, and we give examples of death and mayhem. Why? Because we're exposed to that all the time. But you don't need to be. Gosh damn, Mountain Lion killing a woman outside of Denver. You uh uh encountering a shoplifter that just wants to get away, you walking up to get into your car with your groceries and somebody's already in it. Okay, those are the situations, right? And now that's where the element of surprise doesn't necessarily mean cunning, but it's just as lethal. It can get you killed just as much as a sniper and IED.
SPEAKER_02:Again, a mountain lion is a very cunning opponent because it's constantly it that's what it has to do for survival, right? Every single day it has to be cunning down to you know what, I better go after that mule deer instead of this one because that one's gonna put up a bigger, bigger fight, and I'm gonna get my tooth kicked in and then I can't eat and I'm gonna die. Right.
SPEAKER_03:I mean, tell me that your guy with the gas can, Brian, out between Walmart and City Market, and you know, walking by the pumps, doesn't do the exact same assessment. Okay. And when I say exact, I mean within margins. They look at a person that's much more likely, you know, hey, this guy's busy and he's in a hurry and he just wants to throw the money at me to get me out of the way, rather than a person that's gonna punch me in the nose or tell me to get a job. You know, because every time I fail, every time that mountain lion fails, somebody goes hungry, right? So I need that money in my pocket. So I can't go out there and have a bunch of negatives each time that I do this because I'm not gonna apply my trade very well. So, so the idea is that the cunning, Brian, tend to get more cunning. And that's through exposure. And that's why we don't have a tactical advantage on the ground, is because if we don't study for it and rehearse and look at it, right, then we're going to likely be a victim more often than not.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and the you you bring up a good point too there. The cunning are gonna get more cunning. Meaning if they are, if that is who they are, if they're just a normal person who's gonna screw it up every time, they're gonna screw it up every time. And it's like I know I've told this story before when I was, you know, downtown Chicago years ago visiting some friends, we were out, and they come walking out of this nice place and they're we're going to the next bar, and I was, you know, in the bathroom or whatever. So I I come out after them, and there's a guy trailing them across the street, and then makes an angled approach to go over by them, and he didn't even see me. And I came up and then he turned and looked at me and I said, Wrong group, and he turned and he just walked the other direction. So he knew, all right, well, gig is up. I no longer have the elements that I need, so I'm out of here. So for him, he's gonna learn and become more cunning, but like someone who just still did it anyway is like this guy who's just you're you're not meaning you you're you you're there there's a learning, there's an advantage to learning from that and continuing to grow and become better, because like you likely will. And you'll see that with people over time. So it's so it's just a good example of that. But so to determine some of the stuff, right? Everyone wants the simple takeaways, and we talk about it over and over again, you know, the baseline plus anonymous decision, and it's still everyone's like, well, what about this? And what so I want to drill down a little bit deeper on that and and kind of explain it the same way we do, but like in a little bit different manner, just because to you're listening to a podcast, some of you who are listening have been through our training and come to our courses and seen a lot, some of you haven't, you only know from the podcast or whatever. So you know, I'm trying to try to cater in a sense to both audiences. Uh, you know, I don't want the people who are always listening to get, oh yeah, you've talked about this before. And then then the people who listen but have never been to training or don't know anything, go, hey, what the hell do you mean by that? Because that sounds interesting, right? Right. So I'm trying to try to bridge that gap a little bit. But it's all good. So we we we talk about the baseline and how to identify. So let's get into this detection method of how to detect a cunning opponent. And there's obviously way more than we could get into on a single podcast that there's way more than we can get into all of our podcast episodes, but it's it's it's a process, I think that you can listen to this and then go out and try it. And we'll give you some examples. But here it is. It it goes back to the baseline. And so this detection method, let's start with just the literally the base, the B-A-S-E. So baseline, meaning, all right, what what's typical here? What what are people here to do? What are you here to do? Like the gas station example is perfect. You're there to either you work there, you're getting gas, or you're running in and getting, you know, a drink or something to eat, or whatever, like, or you're delivering the gas, or you're delivering the food and drink, or you're delivering the ice for the ice, but like there are specific reasons to be there. So it's like what what what in this environment, like most behavior, it it's a short list, Greg. Is it is that I mean like there aren't a lot of things that that you can be doing. There aren't you don't just get up off your couch and wander down to the gas station for no apparent reason, right? We all follow some sort of goal-oriented behavior for whatever it is that we're doing. So that baseline is it's that's actually where everything's at, right? That's where we we we really want to focus on because the better you get at that. But then you go, all right, well, then what's or who is demonstrating, you know, who isn't demonstrating that baseline behavior, who isn't going along with these lists of things of possible reasons or roles, I should say, really, like uh of why you should be there. So that's like the what's out of place, who's lingering, who's scanning, who looks like they're maybe conducting a reversal, a an a movement path that isn't aligned with what everyone else is doing, like the geographically challenged, someone who's lost. Everyone knows is driven behind someone to go, oh, this dude's lost, or oh, they're lost. You know what that looks like. All right. So, so that looks almost universal because you're not following the path. You're putting your turn signal on whatever, or you're breaking when you you shouldn't be. So you've driven behind that person. Well, that behavior demonstrates that they're lost. Well, that can see that in other areas. So those repeated direction changes, like targeting specific people, right? Our gas or uh a gas can guy at the gas station, right? Those are those anomalies that that we look for. And those are just, you know, what would you call them? Things that are interesting. They're invitations to pay attention to. Does that make sense, Greg?
SPEAKER_03:Yeah, absolutely. So so if if we add to that before we go on to the to the rest of them, what Brian is saying to you is infinitely important. So you gotta take stock in the baseline. So when Brian was giving you, let's stick with gas stations, it's a perfect one. If you see a person that's appears to be without a house and they're staying around the gas station, what would their demonstrations of intent be? Are they living there because they're living off of handouts, that they're living out of the dumpster, that it's warm, okay, that it's got covered gas pumps, so they're out of the weather, that the person doesn't yell at them and it's open 24 hours so they feel a sense of security? Those are all things that go on your yellow pad. That makes sense, right? And and that comes up to that simple explanation. Okay, so if I have a robust baseline, what are the people doing here in any environment? I make a very short list of what happens in that environment. Then I take a look for who's paying attention and doing the baseline environments I should suspect and expect, and then who's out of place, who isn't. Okay, I'll give you an example of an anomaly and a baseline. All gas stations I've ever been to have an ATM. And most of the ATMs at a gas station are the old draconian box method ones that have a little baby screen that you need your glasses with, and they'll only give out like 150 bucks, right? And it's really hard to read the son of a bitch, but it's an ATM nonetheless. So we all know what an ATM looks like and what the sign looks like. So I've never had somebody follow me to the ATM. I've never had another male go with me to the bathroom. So those would be anomalous behaviors in a clinically normal baseline. So if somebody decides to shadow me in that situation, you know, I go up to get a beer out of the cooler and there's a person already waiting there, and they open the cooler door for me, after you, sir. Well, either I'm in the high-end area, you get what I'm saying, or this doesn't fit at all. So it's very simple to get used to seeing what doesn't fit. And what doesn't fit should make you more curious.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Well, if it doesn't fit, you must acquit, right? You must. There we go.
SPEAKER_03:He died, didn't he? A lot of people died around him there. A lot of people died with that one. A lot of people died violently around him there. Holy shit. So I've never bought isotoners for Shelley after that. So let's just yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, guy was I mean, but his hitch I mean, his his rushing yards are pretty impressive. Uh not not enough to not not.
SPEAKER_01:And his retrofit his his his post uh NFL career on so much.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. All right. So if we your your great explanation would be by those anomalies and what they are like in I gotta pay attention to this. There, there's a meaning it just something more than well, there's a r there has to be some reason for this. Yes. Right? Like, well, there's a reason why someone isn't going along that or they're doing something different. And so that brings us to like when I talk about the baseline and this base concept. The S would be what's the simplest explanation? Now we teach that as MLMD co. What's the most likely, what's the most dangerous course of action? But but it I figured it would kind of frame it this way, Greg, and we haven't really done it before, but but we we do it sort of implicitly because most there, most things have this a very simple explanation. I mean, almost everything has a simple explanation to it, literally almost everything. More often than not, it is the simplest explanation. But that's the idea is that I want to start there, not oh my God, this is the next, you know, terror attack. What else should I no? It's like, what's the simplest explanation for what this person is doing? Okay, they're lost, or yeah, they've never been in this place before, or they left their wallet in the car, which is why they're running back. I mean, there's there's the most simple, so and we would say that kind of like, what's the likely thing? Because again, it can only be a few things. There can only be a few simple explanations. And so if I compare that to the what's the most likely, what's the most dangerous, you know, that person lingering next to the Portageon at this event, are they waiting for a friend or are they waiting for a victim? Right. It's like there's no other reason to hang out next to a smelly portigon, right? So so it's like you you can only be there for a few simple reasons. So we always boil it down to what's likely and what's dangerous. And by doing that, I'm doing that active comparison. So, so how do I do that in this gas station context, Greg, in a sense?
SPEAKER_03:So like you were doing it, you were talking about it, but like how it's like default to your baseline, always always default to your baseline. Baseline plus anomaly equals decision. So I'm taking a look at the situation that I find myself in, and I'm either alone and other complicating factors, the weather's bad and it's dark, and other compliment complicating factors, I'm far away from the entrance, okay, and I don't see a camera keeping an eye on me. I start adding those things up, and that most likely course of action starts becoming a more dangerous course of action. So let's go the opposite end. I'm in line at an event and nobody around me is attending to the surroundings. They're just waiting in line. And when somebody moves forward, they step forward. That means everybody's tuned out, which means look, you're the perfect victim. Okay. And that line now is at an entrance, okay, or an exit to a place that does something. And then I add up that you're not in line and you're not doing the thing that we're all doing. Do you do you see how those things immediately fall into line when you're looking at your baseline and you can compare? Why? Because whatever you're susceptible or vulnerable, that's when you're higher likelihood that you're going to be predated upon. So if you're standing in line for the bathroom and everybody's checked out and has to go pee, the last thing they're doing is, hey, why is this guy over here, you know, slinking up in the shadows to take an extra look at me? Why am I walking across the parking lot and this person is matching my, you know, matching me step for step on the way to the elevator, you know, and it's after hours and now I'm feeling uncomfortable. Well, you feeling uncomfortable is because that's contra baseline. That's counter what you should expect in that area, and that makes it an anomaly. So the idea is that if I'm seeing behaviors that are out of character for the behavior I should expect in that zone, guess what? It's taken itself from the simplest explanation. He's here, just like me, to get in line and buy a ticket to, hey, wait a minute, this person's seeing that I've got a couple extra 20s in my wallet and I'm about to get robbed. The sooner you know that, the more that you can activate the gift of time and distance.
SPEAKER_02:So here's here's how we we get to know that because it gets into those situations you brought up some good ones where a lot of times people don't know what to do. And when we're like, okay, well, that depends on what your role is in the situation, what your goal is, and all these, because that's what ultimately matters to all of this, right? It's just even situational awareness in general. There's no just situational awareness, it's always relevant to the context that you're in and the you know, your role and goal in the situation, what the outcome is you're trying to achieve. There's no just here's what it is. It's well, that means this in this context and this and another. But what people don't realize you can do is is, and this is why we go through this process of the baselining and what we've been talking about today with this base, is that E would be experiment. Do some hypothesis testing. Yeah. And so what we mean by that is like you can influence a situation. So how would I do that? How could I, how could I experiment to see whether which which hypothesis, whether or not my hypothesis is true? And well, there's a few ways. I can I can change my perspective. I can literally move to the another area and take another look. I can get a second set of eyes. I can say, uh, hey, Greg, something over here, can you take a look at it? I can call someone, whatever it is. I can do a contact, like, hey, how's it going? What's going on today? How are you doing? Hey, can you tell me where this is and ask a question? I can report it, I can do all these things. But but you even just talked about right there, like, hey, it's late at night, I'm in the parking garage, all of a sudden this person's matching my steps, and people automatically go to that because they get this feeling like this isn't right, but they can't articulate why. But then they then they get victimized. And you're like, well, no, if you felt that, turn around and walk the other direction. That was just so so much. So, oh shit, shit, I left something in my car and walk back and see. And then, and then now you're gathering more evidence. Either that person continues on with what they're doing, they didn't even realize you were there, or they're like, Oh, now they have to react off you. So now you've actually gained a tactical advantage in the situation, in a sense. So, so those are those things. So, so as we're going through this, like, what what what uh how how do how does that work real real world with the things I just laid out, right? Changing perspective and getting a second step, like what does that actually look like in these situations?
SPEAKER_03:So the idea is jumping to an unreasonable conclusion burns calories that you don't need to burn. It also burns connections that you don't need to burn because now you're in the nut book at the local police department because you called 911 15 times in a day, and you don't want that. They they call it sometimes a nut book or the 96 book, and every agency has one, even though they they say they don't. Okay, so the easiest thing to do is to change your perspective. Change your location slightly. I'm higher, I'm lower. I take a knee to tie my shoe. I get behind cover and do a quick peek. I walk into a store to see if that person continues to follow me, like you just said. So the second set of eyes is where I go, Brian, at my six, I'm not sure what's going on back there. But you automatically look at that and go, hey, I'm picking up the this guy's matching your pace, or you know, I'm putting luggage on a cart to go into the hotel, and this person doesn't seem to have a rental car or any luggage, but they're damn and they're not dressed like a porter, and they're definitely coming closer to me. So what's up here? Okay, now you become a teammate. You become that extra second uh uh set of eyes, my my partner, right? We never go anywhere without that battle buddy. Then the low calorie contact, Brian told you one. Brian said he was in Chicago with his friends and he yelled to the guy, hey, not this group. That's a beautiful one, you know? Not today. Hey, if you're not a cop, you better turn the other way and and and walk away because we're on to you now. You know, the the the jig is up, which means that I'm seeing what's going on. Now, those are the lowest calorie contacts, but you don't always want to give away your advantage. So that's when you report something. That's when you go in and you enlist the aid of another person and go, hey, do me a favor, could you call the police for me? There's a suspicious person out in the parking lot. Notice I use this time suspicious because the person's no longer interesting. Now I have artifacts and evidence to support my conclusion. I'm not watching anymore, Brian. I'm not just watching and saying, wow, that's interesting. I'm curious. I'm now saying this person is up to no good. Do me a favor and call. And once you do that, now you become a good witness. Yeah, I don't care what your rank is, I don't care if you're a copper or not. You become a better witness by putting these things in an MLMD co a fashion.
SPEAKER_02:So you you went to which is the the next step, like kind of that in the moment action communication, because this is where it can get it can get really difficult even if you have a lot of experience in this. Let's say you have a lot of like even for like law enforcement who've been doing this stuff, and then you ask them a bunch of questions, like, well, I just knew. And it's like I had a gut feeling, and it's like I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying you're right. However, you can't testify to a jury saying, Well, I just knew. It's like they're gonna be like, get out of here. You know, I mean, but but meaning it it's it's important to to kind of distinguish between those two things. Hey, between I didn't feel safe or I felt scared to, hey, I knew something was up because those are a little bit different, and and here's why. So that in-moment sort of communication, whether that's to yourself or to another person, is is that's a part that really needs to kind of where you where the structure comes into play, right? And that's why we go to baseline anomaly, why it matters, right?
SPEAKER_03:Always go back to baseline. And and one quick story to interject here, so you understand that there's low-level, most likely course of action, nothing's happening, you're fine. To MD, the most dangerous or deadly course of action, and it's about to become a crime scene. So yesterday was the anniversary of a female officer that was killed and a male officer that was shot so badly that he'll never return to duty. He'll never be absolutely like he was before the incident. And the call was a simple one barking dog, a noise complaint. So I went to the local hotel. There's a couple of dogs locked in a car that were barking, and it was bothering other people. They run the plate, they go in, find out what the hotel room is, knock on the door, female comes to the door, they said, Hey, you got to stop this, the other neighbors. She's like, Yeah, yeah, I get it. And they're like, No, we got to talk to you, get your name and information, because if you don't do it, we're gonna issue a ticket. So stop there for a minute because you already know what's gonna happen in any of my stories. It's gonna take a gosh damn exit to Wild Town. So the idea was low level, low complexity, no threats, everything is simple. It's just a barking dog, Brian. It's just a barking dog at a hotel. So somebody didn't do the baseline. What's the ML? What's the MD colo? Why is this person refusing to give me the ID? It ends up that the person that's in the hotel room with this female not only is armed, but also has a warrant, thinks that this might. Okay, and comes out shooting. Ten shots are fired. Then the female officer after being shot at disarmed and killed with her own gun. There's so many tragic things that happen. But you know what happens? Like I'm only on LinkedIn with with gosh damn you know social media. Everybody goes to the well, the tactics and you failed this and you did that. Look, your hinky button should have gone off. That you're at a location where sometimes bad people ply their trade. They have the dogs in the car, which means something. Okay. I'm not sure what it means yet, but now I go up and knock on the door and I'm getting a little bit of resistance on a very low-level call from the person in the room. Do you see how things add up, Ryan? And that's the key. The key is what why do these elements not fit very simply together? Why am I having a complex situation out of seemingly nothing?
SPEAKER_02:So that that and that's a great example of a of a uh it goes where it goes back to the the the baseline and then the anomaly. So the baseline being like, all right, normally in this situation, people are doing what? And this person is doing this. I mean, because if you think of like, hey, your dogs are barking in the car. This is like that officer doesn't even want to be there for this call. That's how you know what I mean. It's it's such a but but meaning it's like, so really anything other than, oh shit, my bad, let me go get him in, or I can't bring him in the room because they don't allow them. I'm only trying to take like there's a lot of people. Let me move the car. Exactly. Or whatever. You know, I mean, and then so it's like, hmm, you're giving up this much resistance resistance to such a low level. Like it's that's in in obviously now looking at it, like that that's that's so anomalous. It's so obvious.
SPEAKER_03:So let's go even further in likelihood, Brian. Look, okay, for that person at the motel or hotel to call the police, has there been a number of complaints that that person couldn't handle? Because they almost never want to invoke the police card, right? And then the the thing is, how long is the dog barking going on? Look, you're at a hotel. They're noisy places anyway. So for this these dogs in the car to bark enough that not only you've took uh exhausted management, but now they've called the police. Do you see that balancing act I'm talking about? If you took the extra minute on the way in the car when you're talking to the person at the front counter, to start thinking this BAD is turning to an MD, then now you've got a chance. You've got a running chance at the gift and time and distance. And I'm not saying, look, I'm not casting aspersions. I wasn't there, I'm not that officer, but that officer's dead, okay? And I can learn something from that situation, can't I? You know?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and and so that goes back to like, all right, so how how you communicate that like in a moment, and right? We just talked about the baseline. Normally, people are doing this when we're here in this location. Normally I see this. This person is doing, you know, normally people are doing X, this person is doing Y. And you know what? Here's why that matters. It's like, here's what's typical, here's what I'm seeing, here's why it's significant. So that gives them this. That could mean this. Normally I see this, that could be also this. Like, so it's like, hey, it's near this entrance, it's near this, it's where this is happening. So now the location matters. Now the request is whatever. Can you send someone? Can you take a look? Can you do this? Whatever that is based on the situation. But it's always that very simple like, here's what's typical, here's what I see different, here's why here's why I think it's significant. Here, you know what I'm saying? And and by try going into that as like this is how I'm gonna report it, it forces you internally to actually justify what it is that you're gonna do.
SPEAKER_03:To fill all those blocks, exactly. Yes. So even before you hit the number, look, folks, if it's a bona fide emergency, call. Uh you can figure things out later. Get it on the wire. But if it's not, and it's very interesting, and it's close to fitting all those things, and you gotta activate somebody, then this helps you remember those things that you have to do before you call. And it's always an area that's a transition area where the parking lot needs to be, where the lights no longer shine on the other side of the hedge. Those are the, you know, those are the typical things that you should be looking out for all the time.
SPEAKER_02:That that's uh that that just spurred me one of one of one of my different cross-country drives. I think the last one was with my brother, but when it was, you know, stopping off at right off a major interstate, yeah, get busy gas station, parking lot behind the gas station, right up to a forest line that leads out into like I'm talking like middle of nowhere forest. And I'm like, this is the greatest location for any type of illegal activity. Homicides happen here. It's a side. It was like exactly you want to dump a body, you want to do a dope deal. There's two major interstates nearby. There's this, and it's just like you could come from nowhere and be instantly in the thick of things with people moving interstate traffic in zero time. It's like, it's like a portal almost. It's like some sci-fi movie, and it's the same thing going the opposite direction. So when I see those certain specific locations, you're like, oh Jesus, this is perfect for literally anything. But I wanna I want to give uh do a couple couple examples of uh of how some of this stuff works, Greg, and and talk about determining uh, you know, or or finding or detecting a cunning opponent. And we'll start with something, maybe I think your your your grease trip which I did not get to go on.
SPEAKER_03:That wonderful, oh I got such a sunburn, Brian.
SPEAKER_02:During the and my massage was shortened because my so did I, you know, so did I where I was at, and it was not because of fun.
SPEAKER_03:I wasn't getting shot at, I was getting shots from the bar. No, so we're doing Mekinos in Chanya and a couple other places and doing training. And so there's one riverfront that our program director for overseas operations, Martin Woolley, is very familiar with this oceanfront area. And so we go down there to take a look at a place for dinner. And clearly I'm dressed differently and look differently than everybody else that's coming down there, and I look voraciously hungry at the same time. So it happens, a very simple plan. A guy steps in front of me to slow my roll. So I immediately catch on to that and try to turn to the left. And here's the guy with the placard with the menu. Welcome to Fantasy Island, starts telling me all the stuff that they have. So I try to step back. There's another guy behind me, and I go, okay, so I'm about to be either beaten to death, robbed, or these people want me to go to their restaurant. Now, every restaurant there was wonderful. So why are they going so hard after me? Because my money is going to propel them past, you know, what they need to make their nut for that day. And if I just keep walking and choose another restaurant, they don't get it. So were they aggressive? Certainly. Were they competitive? Absolutely. Did they show cunning? Yes. But the idea was they followed the acronym exactly. But it wasn't for nefarious means. So the baseline was a lot of restaurants, high-end stuff that was in there. The anomaly was all of a sudden these guys blocked my way. Simplest explanation fit. Most likely they're trying to get me to eat at their restaurant. So I experimented. Okay. I tried a different restaurant with Martin, and then I asked Martin, hey, has this happened before? And he goes, Oh man, that's how it works on these waterfront Mediterranean restaurants. So do you see how quickly that went from a potential dangerous situation down to this is normalcy? And now it's something I can add to my file folders.
SPEAKER_02:So I had a fairly similar experience in when I was when I was with my wife and we were on this years ago down vacation in in Cabo San Lucas. And so we were down in Mexico. And so same thing. We're coming down into this like the pier area where it's all restaurants and then tour and some shops and and and you know, tourists walking down, and there's the boats right there. And then the same thing. They had the guys out there in front of each restaurant with their menus, just trying to get people to come in and spend their money at the restaurant. So obviously, nothing to fears. They're just trying to make it a big show and get in front of you to just literally block your path. So you're just very kind. I guess we're getting some more chips and salsa, you know what I mean? There you go. Next thing you know, you're in there. But I'm coming down the hill, and it was like come down this this the path, basically, where you can kind of start to see everything. And I had earlier in the day been having some drinks on the beach, some adult drinks, and had the had the lady out there who was you know braiding hair for all the all the girls on spring break, I guess. So I said, why don't we do it? I had long hair at the time, longer than it is even now. And and so they did the braids and everything like that. So when Mikhay came down and she was like, What the hell did you do? I'm like spring break, baby, let's do this. And so I got white girl wasted. Anyway, so we went down there. So I'm now walking through, I've got like a Hawaiian shirt on. I've got like, you know, braids in my hair coming down, and it was just just me and my wife. And then everyone was, and you could tell we were partying having fun and laughing, and like, you know, it's all other families going to restaurants and everything like that. So there's two guys, though, that are kind of off a little bit, pushed a little bit back from where everyone else was, and they're looking at the crowd, and I'm going, like, okay, are these guys, they don't look like they're like, you know, plainclothes security for the area or anything. And I'm like, all right, is that a manager watching their guys out here? I'm not really getting that kind of feel. No one ever looks back to him. It's these two guys looking, and then the one guy, as we're walking down there, makes immediate eye contact with me, and both him and his buddy kind of like shift a little bit. And I'm like, okay, I'm watching. He comes walking right up to me in perfect English, does the eyebrow flash and goes, Hey man, can I get you anything? And I'm like, I'm good, brother. Thank you. And my wife's like, What the hell was that all about? I was like, Oh, he's trying to sell me drugs. And she's like, What? And I'm like, he's just coming up seeing if I needed anything. And she's like, Why would he single you out? I was like, babe, stop. Did you look at me, look at me right now, and look at everyone, just take a look at everyone out here, all these families. Now look at me. She's like, Oh my god, you look like you could use some cocaine right now. I'm like, Yes, I look like it's gonna come down there. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03:You fit the file folder, the mental model, you fit the expert model of what those folks were looking for. And and that was a rare miss for them. And the same thing with the people at the restaurant. It would have been a rare miss if we continued to walk. And if Martin would have saved me and said, no, no, man, and he knew you know some of the language and pushed them off, and we went to another restaurant and it happened again. You see what I'm saying? So the the the idea of them being able to rehearse, meaning an opponent being able to rehearse and you not, that puts you at a disadvantage. So you upped your game, right? You changed, and you got to see another part of the baseline, which now you've added to all your four and each dope trips.
unknown:Yeah.
SPEAKER_03:I'm just saying, man.
SPEAKER_02:So he well, it was actually good for my wife to see too, because I was like, all right, come here. And it was like a perfect teachable moment. And I was like, we we walk past the crowd a little bit. I go, now look at where everyone's at. See the people putting in the house, see how those two are standing off, their attention, they have situational awareness, they're up and out, they're looking at everything that's going on, right? Because they're looking for customers, they're looking for cops, they're looking for for eat, you know, maybe even just a manager of a restaurant to be like, hey, you know, pound sand, dude, get out of here, go go sell your dope somewhere else. You know what I mean? Which they probably would have. I mean, these are younger kids. This wasn't like some, you know, but but she was like, Oh my god, how do you see all this stuff? I'm like, baby, Jesus, like I do this. I do you see how I'm teaching you? She's like, Yeah, that's what I do for a living, hon.
SPEAKER_03:But anyway, like when I go on those trips, I'm doing that. That's so funny. That's so true.
SPEAKER_02:I'm not just out like partying or something. Like, where do you think I go when I'm doing this? That's so true. But no, so those are those are two good good examples. So I I want to give uh maybe the the listeners kind of some some some homework or some things that they can do, and we'll do it. We'll do it, let's do it to two versions, kind of like one by yourself, one that you can do with the team. And these are very, very simple things. So next time you're in one of those places, and I would pick places that you already frequent or somewhere that you go. All right. And what you want to do is obviously all right, what are the baseline behaviors? What are the anomalies you notice? What could that mean? What were the hypotheses? What's and and do the what's the most likely, what's the most dangerous? And and Greg and I still technically do this. Remember, we're driving around and Greg will go, like, I'll I'll pick something and I'll give it either the most ridiculous or the most benign, where Greg will see something be like, okay, yeah, homicide, body in the trunk, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, no, Jim, you know, physics or uh high school physics teacher go into the and we just go like the two opposite diverging paths, just like to see which is more likely. And they're there, it's fun, but what it does is this is actually where where where interest comes from. Like, meaning your brain will actually start going, oh, I noticed a few things. I'm now interested in something that I other that I literally was not interested before in the past. Right. You could you can do that with music. You take music you don't like and go, hey, listen for these three things, and then you'll hear it and go, oh, and then you'll start slowly liking that music more. It doesn't matter what it is. So it's just training your brain. So that would be, you know, one kind of solo one. And then now I would working in sort of like the team, it could be with your spouse, it could be with your whoever, someone else, is like that communication part, like, hey, I'm down and uh, I'm down and in, I need you to be up and out, or hey, nine o'clock, what do you see? And so how do I correctly because you know, doing this stuff on my own, it can be easy, I can make some notes and I can see something, but like it when you start working with other people on it, it can get a little bit more complicated. So, Greg, if we're working together on this, how do I get you involved, but without like priming you in the wrong way or without biasing you or putting my finger on the scale? You get what I'm saying? Like, because I want to get I want to get a clean kind of observation from you. I don't want to suggest something.
SPEAKER_03:Exactly. We're constantly aware of our surroundings and projecting the ML and MDCOA because we're always out in public, and guess what? Even us, we're sort of known to some people, and we stick out like a sore dick to other people. So the idea is that we don't want to become victimized. And the idea is that we project that so people are looking at us, and because most of the time we're walking and teaching somebody else, we are down and in, so we can't be up and out all the time. So one of the things that I do is when I'm walking and Brian's my up and out, what I'll do down and in is when I see something that's encroaching upon me, access, I'll just call out a number. So if you look at the face of a clock, 12 is in front of me, nine is behind me, or nine is my left, six is behind me, three is to my right, Detroit school system. The idea is as I'm walking, I'll yell out a number. That's why it gets complicated. I'll yell out nine and the guy's at four.
SPEAKER_01:This is this is a good way for things to other use. If Greg is telling you, just assume we called out the wrong number.
SPEAKER_03:Exactly. And look the exact opposite. No, and don't yell it out when you're close to a drive-thru window because the guy back there is making a number four. But the idea is that you're yelling out the number where you see the thing, and all you got to do is say it uh louder than your conversation, and you can fit it right in the conversation so the people you're with don't get hanged up. And and I do it with Shelly all the time. We're walking with Shelly and I got my six, and she'll take a look at the six, or I'll say just a number six. And the idea is that she'll glance back there and she'll say it's nothing. I I can hear Shelly's voice now in my ear saying it's nothing. And the cool thing is that she's had the standoff, the gift of time and distance. She understands what's up. So she did the ML MD Coa that I couldn't do because I'm involved with something, and she told me it's all good. Now, if she doesn't answer or she says, Yeah, this is a good one, okay. Now we start taking our defensive positions, we're calling somebody, we're getting 911 activated. But I want to add something to that. That's the simplest thing. That that quiet coordination tool, okay, in a crowd that nobody else is paying attention to. But Brian, if you're talking about a group skill, one of the greatest group skills in the world is using your binos, your spotting scope, your UAVs, those things to monitor your baseline. So if I'm on the move, I'm Oscar Mike through an environment, and somebody else can be surreptitious in their observations and perceptions of me moving through my environment, then they can talk to me in my ear and go avoid the nine. You get what I'm trying to say? Don't go over there, stay in the parking lot, don't go in the business, something's up, and then now guess what? You're you're you're deconflicting potential danger at a distance.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and the the obviously with with with comms too, you try to the the the brevity really helps when you do that. Like when you turn and you'll be like, hey, you know, gray shirt, two o'clock. Yep, it's not telling me I think he's doing this or this is something going on. Then I look and I either go, like you said, like Shelly doing the oh, it's nothing. Or because what it and just so everyone understands, like that's when I do that, or Shelly or someone does that, it's like, oh, I see what you see. Yes, and I think I don't think it's anything, or injury, or it's might be, oh, interesting, or now I get a second look, or oh yeah, we're we're we're gonna make a U-turn up ahead and we're gonna double back on that.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah, and on New Year's. Shell and I were driving away from us situation to go home, and all I did is look at my side view, look at my rear view a few seconds apart, and I said two words. I said, same sled. And Shelly shifted from Shelly, the passenger, to Shelly watching the behavior of the vehicle and said, No, that guy lives down the street from us. You just don't recognize the vehicle. And I'm going, oh, thank you. But but the idea was I wasn't being paranoid. I wanted to add some precision to my observation. And so Shelly caught on right away. Why? Because we work together often. You and I work together often. Our teams do. So if now you find yourself at the Super Bowl or a big event, something like that, now you can use comms and optics and signal brevity and the base model to pick people out. It goes from interest to something's going on here. Is it MLMDCOA? And now we only have a simple choice. Who do I call? Okay, what do I know? Who needs to know? Have I told them yet?
SPEAKER_02:Very simple. Yeah. And and that's that's a the good point. I'm I'm glad you uh highlighted that, where it's one when you're working with someone for a long time and there's a lot of implicit communication and trust, and you know that to now to, and that's why I brought that up was reporting to someone that you haven't worked with, and it goes, hey, this is what I typically see. This is what I found interesting, here's why I found that interesting. And then it sort of allows them.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah. Start off with look, every time that you've been with me, that I've had a call 911, and I know you because I've been with you a number of times, where because we're heightened and we're out there looking, we find things, okay? Yeah. And you're gonna find stuff. The the very first thing is I'll I'll ask the person at the other end, do you have a non-emergency number? And almost every time they either switch me to that non-emergency number or they say no, go ahead with your call, and I'll tell them, look, it's probably nothing. That's how I start off everything. Yet I'm seeing these things in an environment where I normally see these things. So it's probably nothing. But if you got a car close by, maybe they want to take a look at the person, you know, at the park bench with the blue briefcase that's doing the whatever. And I give a very detailed description. And you know what? I remain eyes on. I may shift my perception by moving to a position to cover, but I remain eyes on, and I also tell them my information so they can contact me later so I can be a witness. And you know what? I would rather, as a copper of 30 years, Brian, I would rather come to your house 10 times for nothing than come for the one time that across the street you were witnessing a massacre and nobody did anything about it.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, that that's the thing, is that that this is where everyone goes, yeah, you know, whatever. You can you can read the stories, you can watch the documentaries, whatever. We're like, oh, I knew something was up. And I mean, how many times it comes up where someone I felt off or something, I knew something here. And so this is what we're talking about, is is you can influence the situation too. So exactly going back to again what the baseline is with the anomalous, is what's the simplest explanation? Can I conduct a limited objective experiment? Can I test my hypothesis in some way? Because then you're gonna find out is this a cunning opponent or is this not? Is this someone who's just going about their business and they're lost, or are they attempting to do something else? Because you know, with that whole when a cunning opponent is trying to keep it together. And they're trying to hide in plain sight and they're trying not to be seen. That is difficult to do. It takes a lot of calories, it takes a lot of attention, and it takes a and and and you can only do it for so long. You can only be like 100% on the ball, locked in for a limited amount of time. So you're going to let something slip. Something is going to happen along the way that even no matter how well you train, rehearse, and plan for this attack you're going to go do or this thing that you're going to go happen, there's going to be something that, if it gets in your way, is going to trip you up enough that you will betray your affiliations. You will demonstrate your true intent. You can't just hide from everyone all the time. It's impossible to do.
SPEAKER_03:It's so true. That female that attacked that church school on the East Coast that parked in very interesting manner. Then drove around in a very interesting manner, then got out all of her guns in a very interesting manner, still not triggering anybody, but then she shoots out the front window door and then never tried to get in with the long guns and guns strapped. So she's trying to get under the door and drag her stuff, and she got caught a couple of times, and it looks so awkward. Okay, well, we know immediately what she didn't rehearse and what she did rehearse, right? So the idea is that when you take a look at that, that level of cunning, that level of expertise, you can play that back all the way to the parking lot and before. Because guess what she had to do? She had to pack those guns and then she had to lift them into the trunk or the backseat. She had to do those things. So you can assume that that level of the game is already night. So you play it backwards. And you know what? Cunning means you can be a cunning opponent. And that means that you're harder to kill, you're smarter and faster. Brian and I, last thing I'll say, Brian and I were in a in a parking lot and we were on the way to training and we were with another person that doesn't do what we do all the time. And the first thing that caught my attention was at my nine, which is I'm doing the numbers real quick now because I don't want to be an idiot. I actually pointed, did you see that?
SPEAKER_02:And uh uh Greg wears a Greg wears a watch that doesn't work, it just ends up.
SPEAKER_03:Oh my gosh, the numbers and it's drawn on with magic marker. So the idea was that the car was parked off the the regular hotel parking. So it was behind some things on the way to the gosh damn closed restaurant next door. Remember that restaurant had like operating hours, one o'clock to two. You know what I'm saying? It was like closed almost the rest of the day. But the female was at the trunk and she had literally everything out of the trunk. She had the thing that holds the spare tire, the spare tire, the jack for the spare tire, the jack handle, all the other bags and things that were in the back, but all four tires were perfect, and that wasn't what she was looking for. She's still digging down in the fender wells. Okay, why is that interesting? Because again, a location where somebody plies their trade, who was in that trunk, what was in that trunk, what was she about to put into that trunk? Okay, those went immediately from an ML in my mind to an MD. And I don't know the level of the D here, okay, but it was interesting enough to me to bring Brian's attention to it. And then we tell people that because we were training a bunch of cops that are from the area, so they knew, and we took photos to back up artifacts and evidence to support. So now it's out of our hands. Now we've done the reporting part. Well, a little bit after that, the person that was uninitiated, that hadn't gone through the training, that didn't do that, goes, Hey, so what was that all about back there? Because they never equated that location with that behavior with a sense of D. Okay. And so that's why you have to do this often. That's why you can't just go on a webinar or study a book or do you have to get out on the ground, right? And you have to practice it. That rehearsal is just as important for us as it is for a bad guy.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. And and we're, you know, well, one of the things we're lucky because we're traveling and always in those transition areas, the areas or areas where there are transient people. I don't just mean like homeless people or something. Meaning literally, like if you're coming and going out of these hotels and then where they got this bunch of the airs with like four hotels together, it's like, okay, like this is all people not from this area here for a specific purpose. So what is their purpose being here? Is it business? Is it is it pleasure? Is it you know whatever?
SPEAKER_03:Which means it's Christmas in July for some lucrative, you know. Uh and and the other thing is look, people that hire us don't often take us to the top of the ponch and give us lobster. We're going to areas where there's trouble, right? So that means that we'll see those things. And the idea is that you can see them too. You just got to slow your roll. You just got to look around. Being situational aware takes a lot of time to get good at it.
SPEAKER_02:And then the people that could afford to take us to those places always want us to show them the grimy stuff. Like, no, take us to that nice restaurant you were talking about. Exactly. That's so true. I'm thinking of names. Names are popping in my head right now, you know.
SPEAKER_03:I I'm not going to attribute them though, Brian.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, yeah. I'm sure we're thinking some of the same ones. But um, all right, so we we we we went over a lot and and we covered at the beginning this is detecting a cutting opponent. And again, this is this is important too because especially like go back to the large event stuff. Like, there's a difference between, you know, whatever, the kids who are trying to sneak in to see the concert versus the person who's trying to plant a bomb at the concert, right? And so like this is but guess what? In order to gain access, they might do the exact same things. Now, one is not as big of a deal, it's still maybe a crime and they can, you know, have to get kicked out, but the other one is is catastrophic, right? So if you can catch a shot lifter, you can catch a body bomber.
SPEAKER_03:That's the key. If you can catch a person that's going to steal that car idling in the parking lot, you can find a sniper in a complex environment. It's the same skill. And we proved that. We proved that over and over and over, not just in combat, not just with the Marine Corps and the Army and with JSOC and everybody else, but we've proven that with law enforcement and we've proven that with private sector. So the idea is you have to do your work. Nobody comes up and goes, by the way, I'll be your murderer tonight. You have to use the work, do the work, and you have to rehearse and you have to practice. And guess what? Just like going to the gym, Brian, this stuff sticks. It will show in a very short time you'll be able to do this.
SPEAKER_02:All right. Yeah, I think those are some good uh final thoughts there, unless you have uh anything else on this one, Greg.
SPEAKER_03:I got nothing. I'm still stinied by the face of the clock. That beat my ass today. Just so you know. You know what I'm saying? Telling time is kicking my ass, folks.
SPEAKER_01:It is. Which direction is that?
SPEAKER_03:Exactly.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, or well, you get, oh no, I meant from your seven. It's like, oh quick, but you should have covered up.
SPEAKER_03:I'll go in a crowd and hold up the guy like the jerk. It's the oil cans. This guy hates the oil cans. Oh my god. Folks, just listen to Brian. He's smarter.
SPEAKER_02:So we covered a lot, but so uh if there's more on the Patreon side, we'll give some some outlines for that stuff for those who couldn't take notes. But thank you all so much for listening and tuning in. Please keep reaching out with some of your questions or things you want us to discuss so we can get them on here and on the Patreon site. And we're looking forward to 2026. I hope everyone had a had a great 2025 and a good new year's and holidays and all that. So we thank everyone so much for tuning in. And don't forget that training changes behavior.
